ARGENTINA'S ECONOMIC ,CORRUPTION PROBLEMS AND THE FAILED WAR ON
DRUGS.ARGENTINA CONTINUES TO BE MIRED IN CLIMATE OF CORRUPTION AND
ECONOMIC REPRESSION IN THE PUBLIC SECTORS.
The President of Argentina hosted the official launch of the Argentine G20
presidency: the world’s major forum for economic, political, and financial
cooperation.This will be the first G20 presidency in South America and for Argentina
an opportunity to help craft global policy.
In
the 2015 presidential election and Argentines said it was time for a
change. Cambiemos! With less than a year under his belt, President Macri
settled the multi-billion dollar debt with its holdout creditors, sold
global bonds to the tune of
$16.5 billion (an emerging market record), eliminated foreign exchange
restrictions, established a floating exchange rate , suspended the
export tax on all agriculture (except soya), passed a tax amnesty bill
for its citizens and cut government spending in areas such as gas, water
and electricity. Despite the fact that these swift global moves have
created some domestic turmoil, including an increase in inflation and
unemployment rates, Argentina’s profile is getting more “Likes” these
days. Macri also kicked alliances with Venezuela and friends to the curb
in favor of a free trade deal with the United States. International
companies have taken notice and major players like GM, Dow Chemical and
American Energy Partners are taking a chance on Argentina. Coca-Cola and
Fiat-Chrysler are also getting roses: the former has pledged to invest
$1 billion over the next four years and the latter is spending $500
million to upgrade its automotive plant in Cordoba.,
the country elected President Mauricio Macri.The country’s first
democratically elected leader in the last hundred years to not be either
a populist or a militarist. During his term, he has instituted many
free-market policies that have
benefited investors, but these policies have also had harmful effects
on small businesses. Argentina’s economy has been shrinking in the last
year, and unemployment is almost at 10 percent. Macri’s approval rating
has gone down 18 percentage points to 54 percent, and Argentine citizens
are now protesting in the streets. In order to accurately explain this
political instability, one needs to understand the short-term economic
losses and long-term economic gains behind his policies.Macri took
office with a lot on his plate. The tumultuous history of Argentina
includes dictatorships and failed socialist regimes. The country was in
default from 2001 to 2016 and reached 21 percent unemployment in 2002.
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, the previous president, instituted
protectionist policies that squashed foreign competition and implemented
currency controls that overvalued the peso. In addition, Argentina has
been experiencing high inflation for over a decade and has underinvested
in infrastructure. Krichner’s administration was filled with multiple
corruption scandals, including fraud, and was notorious for manipulating
statistics. Although a regional power in the 1980s, Argentina's last
decade has been one of isolation and economic loss.Once in office, Macri
implemented policies, ranging from infrastructural upgrades to major
improvements in the quality of government statistics, to stimulate the
economy and cater to businesses. Importantly, Macri also cut the export
tax, ended currency controls, and lowered subsidies. Despite how
sensible many of these reforms sound, the average Argentine has not yet
seen the benefits—in fact, for many, things have gotten much worse. The
economy shrank 4.3 percent from June 2015 to June 2016, unemployment hit
9.3 percent in the second quarter, and in July, industrial production
had a 7.9 percent loss.
Argentina’s
former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchnerrefused to testify in a
fraud probe.The Kirchners were Peronistas, meaning that they swore
allegiance to the enduring
political phenomenon inspired by Juan Domingo Perón, the late President
whose legacy is so confoundingly multifarious that it has acquired
adherents on the left and right, like some kind of multihued national
cloak. The Kirchners adopted a leftist course, siding with the late Hugo
Chávez and the Castros in world affairs, while lambasting the United
States. Kirchner engaged in a long-running feud with the media
conglomerate Grupo Clarín, accusing it of having a Mafia-like hold over
the flow of information in Argentina. Later, she took on international
debt speculators, calling them “vultures” and refusing to pay them, in
what became a prolonged and, for Argentina’s credit rating, deleterious
standoff.
Like
all Latin American countries, Argentina has a tumultuous history, one
tainted by periods of despotic rule, corruption and hard times. But it’s
also an illustrious history, a story of a country that was once one of
the world’s economic powerhouses, a
country that gave birth to the tango, to international icons like Evita
Perón and Che Guevara, and to some of the world’s most important
inventions Understanding Argentina’s past is paramount to understanding
its present and, most importantly, to understanding Argentines
themselves.rruption
in Argentina remains a serious problem. Argentina has long suffered
from widespread and endemic corruption. Corruption remains a serious
problem in the public and private sector even though the legal and
institutional framework combating corruption is strong in Argentina.
While corruption exists in all levels of society, businesses should
note the especially high risk in public procurement. Argentina's
anti-corruption
provisions are largely contained in the Criminal Code , which prohibits
the active and passive bribery of public officials and bribery of
foreign public officials. The Code does not provide an exception for
facilitation payments, and gifts are prohibited, but enforcement of
anti-corruption provisions is lacking. Companies consider irregular
payments and bribes to be a standard way of conducting business in many
sectors.Corruption, especially in the form of political manipulation, is
a high risk in the judiciary. Companies report that exchanges of
irregular payments and bribes to obtain favorable judicial decisions
often occur . With the exception of the Supreme Court, the judicial
system can be subject to political interference, especially in
provincial courts . In early 2015, Argentinians took to the streets in a
huge march to demonstrate their discontent with the lack of judicial
independence Companies demonstrate a
low confidence in the efficiency of Argentina's judiciary in settling
disputes and in challenging regulations.Despite the availability of
local investment dispute adjudication through local courts or
administrative procedures, many investors prefer private or
international arbitration, likely due to judicial inefficiency Enforcing
a contract is less costly and less time-consuming than Latin American
averages Argentina has ratified the
United Nations' Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign
Arbitral Awards and is a member state to the International Center for
the Settlement of Investment Disputes.Argentina's police carries a high
risk of corruption. The police force is among the most corrupt
institutions in the country and its actions are cited as arbitrary and
politicized . Businesses report that the police cannot be consistently
relied upon to enforce law and order .In an
attempt to curb corruption, in 2014 the metropolitan police of Buenos
Aires adopted a model of community policing that grants higher pay and
benefits to its officers . The Oficina Anticorrupción , Argentina's
anti-corruption agency, has an internal mechanism through which civil
servants can complain about police actions.Transparency
International's 2016 Corruption Perception Index ranks the country 95th
place out of 176 countries The Financial Action Task Force removed
Argentina from its "gray list" in October 2014, noting significant
progress made by the country in improving its legislation and procedures
against money laundering and illicit financing.The
former president of Argentina was indicted on charges of leading a
money laundering scheme while in office, yet another legal blow to the
ex-leader who is facing mounting corruption charges and
allegations.Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
(2007-2015) was officially indicted on April 4 by Argentine judge
Claudio Bonadio for allegedly leading a money laundering ring, reported
Clarín.Charges were also formally brought against the ex-president’s two
children, Maximo and Florencia, as well as businessmen Cristóbal López
and Lázaro Báez, the latter of whom is currently incarcerated and
awaiting trial for a separate public funds embezzlement case.Fernández
has not been formally charged with any wrongdoing, but federal
prosecutor Guillermo Marijuán on Saturday “imputed” her. In Argentina’s
legal system, that means the prosecutor feels there is enough evidence
to warrant a full-scale investigation that could result in charges.The
prosecutor moved against the still-popular former president after
hearing 12 hours of testimony by Leonardo Fariña, an imprisoned former
associate of businessman and alleged Fernández frontman Lázaro Báez.In a
plea bargain, Fariña implicated Fernández and her late husband and
former president Nestor Kirchner in a case related to money laundering
and embezzling funds earmarked for public works. Baez was
arrested.According to press reports, Fariña testified to the movement
out of Argentina by Fariña and Báez of tens and possibly hundreds of
millions of dollars, money that was transferred through offshore
companies in Panama, Belize and the Seyschelles to a Swiss bank.The
leftist leader, from the Peronist party, was barred constitutionally
from seeking a third consecutive term.
Argentina
is the world’s largest consumer of red meat, with beef featuring in
many dishes. “Parillas’’ are restaurants that specialise in barbecued
meat. Typical dishes and foods include asado (BBQ meat), empanadas
(pasties), picadas (cold meats and cheeses
accompanied by bread), mate (herbal tea), dulce de leche (caramelised
condensed milk) and alfajores (sweet biscuits filled with dulce de
leche). The low leverage of the Argentinian private sector (28% of GDP),
expected monetary easing as inflation edges lower, a doubling of USD
deposits in the bank system in 2016 and access to cheap international
finance after 15 years of isolation should help these
investment expectations materialize. All in all, we expect economic
activity to grow by 2.5% y-o-y in 2017 and by 3.7% y-o-y in 2018, driven
by a pick- up in private consumption and investments . Actually, we see
Argentina becoming one of the fastest growing economy in South America
in the coming two years.
Economic
growth is projected to strengthen and become more broad-based.
Inflation is falling, as monetary policy remains restrictive, raising
households’ purchasing power and lifting consumer spending.
Infrastructure outlays, improvements in the business environment and
rising capital flows will boost investment. Exports will benefit from
the recovery in Brazil. The labour market will improve gradually as the
recovery picks up.Fiscal
policy will be moderately contractionary to reduce the deficit while
safeguarding the recovery. Monetary policy will remain appropriately
restrictive to bring down double-digit inflation. Growth and jobs would
be boosted by wide-ranging structural reforms, including a comprehensive
tax reform to simplify the system and improve fairness. Efforts to
reduce inequalities in access to quality education would make growth
more inclusive.The
financial system remains small. Bank credit to the private sector and
stock market capitalisation are well below the levels of OECD countries.
Long-term finance is almost non-existent, constraining investment and
growth. Household and corporate sector debt are low. The main challenge
for financial stability will be to monitor and avoid vulnerabilities as
the financial sector expands.In 2001, the economic crisis gave rise to bitter political
disputes among Argentina’s ruling class. A major row over economy
ministers took place in March, and a "lack of national unity" in
Congress almost provoked de la Rúa to resign in
the summer. In the fall, Cavallo sought to grab money from the
provinces to apply toward the external debt. During the last week of
October, he urged de la Rúa to break the national agreement that has
guaranteed the provinces a minimum of 1.3 billion pesos in tax sharing
transfers. Yet the provincial governors, who remain under intense
pressure from protesters to resist federal austerity measures, walked
out of negotiations after Cavallo declared they should accept payment in
federal IOUs instead of cash.Angry over the
deepening crisis and the weakness of the government’s response,
Argentine voters delivered a damning blow to de la Rúa and his governing
Alianza coalition on October 14. Results gave the Peronist Partido
Justicialista (PJ) control of both the Congress and the Senate in an
unusual campaign in which Alianza incumbents often found themselves
running against members of their own parties, the center-left Radical
Party and the smaller Frepaso. Despite a mandatory voting law, voter
turnout was the lowest since the end of the military dictatorship in
1983.In Buenos Aires, the number of deliberately
spoiled ballots surpassed the number of votes for any one candidate.
Several polling stations noticed a number of votes cast for the cartoon
character "Clemente." And 50 ballot envelopes contained an unknown white
powder.On
December 19, 2001, food riots erupted in se veral Argentine cities.
Within hours, the riots escalated into a broad protest against th e
government and social unrest unfolded into a full institutional debacle.
Two administrations collapsed in less than
two weeks, the country defaulted on the service of its debt, and
political instability returned to the country after eighteen y ears of
democratic rule. This essay traces the development of the Argentine
political crisis and argues that this episode illustrates a rising trend
in Latin America. The first part of this paper explores the unfolding
of the crisis and its resolution. The second part compares the Argentine
case with seven other similar episodes that took place in Latin America
after 1990. I conclude that a new model of political instability
characterized by low military intervention, high popular mob ilization,
and a critical role of congress—is emerging in the region.With
its debt issues mostly resolved and exchange controls eliminated,
Argentina is open for business. Like any recent divorcee just getting
back in the dating game, there’s going to be a learning curve. Times
have changed and Argentina is considered afrontier
market. International investors see potential in frontier markets
because as less established, pre-emerging markets, the risk may be high,
but so is the potential return. Not that adventurous, but still want to
be a Global Citizen? It might be wise to balance riskier investments in
frontier or developing economies with an investment that gives you
broad-based global exposure to developed economies, as well as the
potential growth in regions like South America and Asia-Pac.Argentina
has long been a transit point for drug shipments from Andean countries
and across its shared border with Paraguay and Brazil. Its manufacturing
labs and local drug markets have expanded in recent years, according to
the country’s attorney general.
Subsequently, increases in marijuana and cocaine seizures in 2015. Not
surprisingly, the 2015 World Drug Report ranked Argentina as the most
frequently mentioned cocaine transit country over a 10-year period. Two
years before, the same report had placed Argentina third in the ranking,
behind Colombia and Brazil.In another case, three major ephedrine
suppliers with ties to Mexican cartels were murdered execution-style in
Buenos Aires.
Macri,
the leading opposition candidate, has named the fight against drug
trafficking as one of three main challenges his administration would
focus on. Earlier this year, he said: “It’s putting our culture, our
families at risk. It is also corrupting our
institutions; buying politicians, judges, police officers and
officials, and it must be stopped. We will be the first government to
address this issue directly and battle it from the first day.” One of
the battles Macri is specific about winning the one against the
by-product of cocaine, paco. During the presidential debate on 4th
October, Macri promised to eradicate the drug within five years.Argentina
has long been a transit point for drug shipments from Andean countries
and across its shared border with Paraguay and Brazil. Its manufacturing
labs and local drug markets have expanded in recent years, according to
the country’s attorney general.
Subsequently, the U.S. Department of State and the United Nations
Office on Drug and Crime also reported increases in marijuana and
cocaine seizures in 2015. Not surprisingly, the 2015 World Drug Report
ranked Argentina as the most frequently mentioned cocaine transit
country over a 10-year period. Two years before, the same report had
placed Argentina third in the ranking, behind Colombia and Brazil.In
another case, three major ephedrine suppliers with ties to Mexican
cartels were murdered execution-style in Buenos Aires. Public outrage
ensued, and Cristina Kirchner launched a highly publicized crackdown on
the internal drug trade, Insight Crime reported. Although the crackdown
on the distribution of chemical precursors to narcotics had only a mild
effect, the late response came under fire, especially since
pharmaceutical companies represented some of Kirchner’s top campaign
donors.Between national defense and homeland security.The last time that
the government reformed federal agencies, in the 1990s, it left
security forces and the criminal justice system untouched.The Federal
Police, Gendarmerie, and Coast Guard operate under institutional and
organizational models nearly a half-century old.On this front, Macri has
agreed that the treatment of addicts should be prioritized through
early-intervention and consumption reduction programs, with a special
emphasis on paco He would also reform the state-run SEDRONAR, which
works to reduce the supply and demand of drugs and oversees prevention
policies.Regarding the creation of an agency against organized crime,
Gorgal said that the most important task for criminal intelligence was
the consolidation of information from judges and federal agencies.
Using resources for this purpose would be more cost-effective, since
there are already four security agencies in charge of prosecuting
drug-trafficking organizations.He emphasized how more criminal
intelligence could be a first step to understand regional patterns of
drug smuggling and money laundering. “Argentina is operating in the
shadows,” . Macri will have to develop accountability systems, such as
impact evaluations for prosecutors and police chiefs, so corrupt public
servants answer for their choices on the job.Yet to seriously dissipate
public safety concerns, Macri will not only have to implement reforms
that address these broader symptoms of insecurity, but also restore the
lost confidence in institutions.
Human migration to the Americas began nearly 30, 000 years ago, when the ancestors of Amerindians, taking advantage of lowered sea levels during the Pleistocene epoch, walked from Siberia to Alaska via a land bridge across the Bering Strait. Not exactly speedy about moving south, they reached what’s now Argentina around 10, 000 BC. One of Argentina’s oldest and impressive archaeological sites is Cueva de las Manos in Patagonia, where mysterious cave paintings, mostly of left hands, date from 7370 BC.By the time the Spanish arrived, much of present-day Argentina was inhabited by highly mobile peoples who hunted the guanaco (a wild relative of the llama) and the rhea (a large bird resembling an emu) with bow and arrow or boleadoras – heavily weighted thongs that could be thrown up to 90m to ensnare the hunted animal.The Argentine pampas was inhabited by the Querandí, hunters and gatherers who are legendary for their spirited resistance to the Spanish. The Guaraní, indigenous to the area from northern Entre Ríos through Corrientes and into Paraguay and Brazil, were semisedentary agriculturalists, raising sweet potatoes, maize, manioc and beans, and fishing the Río Paraná.Of all of Argentina, the northwest was the most developed. Several indigenous groups, most notably the Diaguita, practiced irrigated agriculture in the valleys of the eastern Andean foothills. The region’s inhabitants were influenced heavily by the Tiahanaco empire of Bolivia and by the great Inca empire, which expanded south from Peru into Argentina from the early 1480s. In Salta province the ruined stone city of Quilmes is one of the best-preserved pre-Incan indigenous sites, where some 5000 Quilmes, part of the Diaguita civilization, lived and withstood the Inca invasion. Further north in Tilcara you can see a completely restored pucará , about which little is known.In the Lake District and Patagonia, the Pehuenches and Puelches were hunter-gatherers, and the pine nuts of the araucaria, or pehuén tree, formed a staple of their diet. The names Pehuenches and Puelches were given to them by the Mapuche, who entered the region from the west as the Spanish pushed south. Today there are many Mapuche reservations, especially in the area around Junín de los Andes, where you can still sample foods made from pine nuts.Vice-royalty of La Plata: 1776-1810.For the first two centuries of the Spanish empire the vast region draining from the Andes to the river Plate at Buenos Aires is the least regarded part of Latin America. It lacks the gold or silver which attract adventurers across the Atlantic to Mexico and Peru. There is no direct link with Spain, all official contact being through the viceregal capital at Lima. Most of the early settlements are established by colonists moving into the region from Peru or Chile. In 1726 Buenos Aires has a population of only 2200.But the area's status gradually improves during the 18th century, particularly after an administrative reorganization in 1776.Until this time the region has been part of the viceroyalty of Peru, administered at very long range from Lima. In 1776 the entire area, from the eastern Bolivian highlands through Paraguay, Uruguay and Argentina to the southern tip of the continent, is given separate status as the viceroyalty of La Plata with its capital at Buenos Aires.The people of Buenos Aires discover an exciting new sense of pride in 1806, after a British fleet arrives and captures the city. The Spanish viceroy flees ignominiously, whereupon Creole militia led by Santiago de Liniers expel the intruders on their own. For three years Liniers rules in place of the absent viceroy. Buenos Aires is now in the mood to seize any future opportunities.Argentina and San Martín: 1810-1816.Argentina takes its first step towards independence more easily than most other regions of the Spanish empire, partly because of the events of 1806-9 in Buenos Aires. When developments in Spain in 1808 force a choice of allegiance, a cabildo abierto (open town meeting) in Buenos Aires on 25 May 1810 quickly decides to set up an autonomous local government on behalf of the deposed Ferdinand VII.However this first step is soon followed by violent conflict with opposing royalist forces elsewhere in the province. News of this conflict brings back to Buenos Aires an Argentinian-born officer serving in the Spanish army, José de San Martín.When San Martín reaches Argentina in 1812, the patriot army is under the command of Manuel Belgrano, a Buenos Aires lawyer who has had his first military experience as a member of the Creole militia in 1806. In the early years of the war of independence Belgrano has successes against royalist troops in the foothills of the Andes in the extreme northwest of Argentina, at Tucuman (1812) and Salta (1813). But he is defeated further north, in Bolivia, later in 1813. In 1814 he is replaced as commander by San Martín.These battles have all been close to the main source of royalist strength, the rich and conservative viceroyalty of Peru. San Martin concludes that Latin America's independence will never be secure until Peru is conquered.The independence of Argentina is formally proclaimed on 9 July 1816, abandoning any pretence that the junta has been governing on behalf of Ferdinand VII. (The decision is simplified by the reactionary and incompetent rule of the Spanish king after he recovers his throne in 1814.) Meanwhile San Martín is assembling and training an army for his long-term plan of campaign against Peru. He has decided on a two-pronged attack, beginning with an invasion of Chile.He already has an important Chilean ally in Bernardo O'Higgins, a soldier closely involved in the beginnings of the independence movement in Chile but from 1814 a refugee in Argentina.United Provinces of the Rio de la Plata: 1816-1828.San Martín marches west into Chile in January 1817, a few month's after the formal declaration of full Argentinian independence. He leaves his compatriots in Argentina with the task of forming a nation out of what has been the vast but relatively uncentralized viceroyalty of La Plata.The ambitions of many in Buenos Aires are that their city should remain the capital of the entire viceroyalty. But in 1817 this already looks a forlorn hope. Paraguay has resolutely gone its own way in 1811 and by 1814 is a region almost impenetrable to outsiders. Uruguay becomes a battle ground between Argentina and Brazil.